Unless the United States wants the 5th Fleet at bottom of Persian Gulf nothing is going to happen. All one has to do is look at a Map. Iran has Strategic Depth and most Importantly Geography on its side.
Unlike Iraq, Syria and Yemen the country can be easily supplied by Russia via the Caspian Sea. Basically a Russian Lake. To the south facing Saudi Arabia the Persian Gulf is not very wide.
When Reagan built his 600 ship Navy in the 1980’s it didn’t take long for the Russians to realize that they wouldn’t be able to go ship for ship in race. They just didn’t have the money . So instead they went all in developing anti-ship missiles. Not the Sissy boy Harpoons used by us. Nope they employed speed and numbers to overwhelm defenses. So now behind every rock and every hill on the south coast of Iran could be super sonic anti-ship missiles. They have 1000’s of these. 1000’s. It would be asymmetric warfare that Hannibal would approve.
The Ships of the 5th fleet would have seconds to respond to any attack.
So the Nuke Installations get attacked. What then? United States going to invade as well. What if the Iranians just wait. Bide their time. Then a couple weeks later mine the Gulf.
What then Kagan?
Any ideas Kristol?
What happens when Hezzbollah and Hamas launch 10000 or so missiles at Israel.
Meanwhile the Ayatollahs need only wait for USN to be forced to Escort slow moving Tankers thru the Strait of Hormuz. Say good bye to 5th Fleet. For the United States to Control it they would have to seize all of coastline of Iran. Laughable considering that right now the USA cannot even take Back control of Mosul and Raqqa from ISIL.
All the fucken’ geniuses at Pentagon and they can’t look at a map of where US forces are fighting right now. Shouldn’t it concern planners that forces in Afghanistan would essentially be cut off from re-supply. The situation is even worse in Iraq. There American blood and gold is being spent fighting a proxy war for, wait for it, Iran. Yup in Iraq the NeoCons work for Iran. The stupid burns.
Saddam Hussein warned the West about all this but nobody would listen.
Iran is about to use the same playbook used to defeat a much larger Roman Army at the Battle of Cannae. Like the Romans we in the West are getting a bit too cocky about our strength and worse the supposed weakness of opponent.
The Neo-Con Project For A New American Century is over. The only question is weather those ships get scuttled by old age or sent to early watery grave.